The raging debate within Somalis and many have been asking my thoughts, is ‘where is ONLF’?
What’re their positions on the current political crisis in Ethiopia? Why are they silent on the difficulties faced by their most important allies; OLF, OFC and so on?
And here are my thoughts:
1. ONLF thinks it can wait on the sidelines and avoid contentious political issues of the day. And come election time, they think they will easily walk into victory by only opposing Mustafa and other #PP collaborators
2. According to their calculations, which apparently lacks perspective and vision, they don’t wanna risk provoking Abiy’s wrath like their counterparts in Oromia and elsewhere. They’re extremely frightened by the vicious prisons and security agencies of the ’old Imperial state’.
3. Most of the front’s leadership is dominated by ‘diaspora dinosaurs’ who not only have limited insight about Ethiopian politics’ inner workings but are also ‘too tired to face the music’ when their political engagement ‘pushes the limit’ and endangers the status quo.
4. They naively think that Abiy will let them have it and easily take on Mustafa and his other PP yesmen. They naively think he is down for legitimate, free and fair elections or that he will hand them the keys to the region even if their dream of sleepwalking to victory succeeds.
5. ONLF still have the same Guerrilla mentality during the liberation wars seething into its politics when the time calls mass mobilization, bold politics and alliance building.
6. ONLF’s ‘duck and hide’ strategy betrays the decades’ long alliances, partnerships and platforms it was party to. When they choose to stay quiet, they tend not to understand that in Ethiopia nothing happens in a vacuum; meaning, what happens in Ambo, Awassa or Sodo tends to move Jigjiga.
– Mohamed Olad