OMN: ለህገ-መንግስታዊ ቀውሱ ትብብር ያቀረበው የመፍትሄ ሃሳብ (May 9, 2020)


OMN: Gaaddisa Raabaa Doorii [LIVE]


Naannoon Amaaraa Barakat Simoon irratti hidhaa waggaa 6 yakkamtoota OPDO gurguddaa na dura fide.

Duraan dursa Barakat Simooniif adaba hidhaa waggaa 6 jechuun qoosaa dha. Yakka inni mootummaa EPRDF keessatti raaw’ataa fi raaw’achiisaa ture waliin waluma hin argu. Sanayyuu kan qabee hidhe MNAmaaraa ti malee kaka’umsa mootummaa federaalaan miti. Nana sanirratti tarkaanfii fudhachuuf Faannoon murteeffattee kan sosso’aa turte sana dura. Ni yaadattu yoo tahe Barakata hooteela wayii qubateera shakkii jedhuun makiinaa isaa kan daaressan sana dura. Ammas dhiibbaa Faannoo naannoo sanaatu MNA tarkaanfii kana fudhachiise malee fedhii mootummaa Abiy taheetii miti.

Gara Oromiyaatti yoo dhufne waahillan Barakat Simoon maqaa dhoofnee fixuu hin dandeenye qabna. Kumaa Dammaqsaa, Mukataar Kadir, Asteer Maammoo, Abbaa Duulaa Gammadaa, Zalaalam Jamaanee… jarri baay’ee dha. Tokkoon jaraatuu yakka ummata irratti waggaa 27f raaw’achaa turaniin hin gaafatamne. Yookiin gad bahanii ummata dhiifama hin gaafanne. Jara keessaa namni uleen Wayyaanee irra buutee fi booda keessa gad bahee ummata dhiifama gaafate Junaydii Saaddoo qofa. Sunuu quufsaa turee fi hin turreen wal falamsiisaa akka ture hin dagatamu.

Yakkamotootni OPDO maqaa dhoofne hundi mootummaa amma jiruun ittifamoo dha. Cundhuurri maqaa Moootummaa Oromiyaatiin of waamus tahee mootummaan federaalaa jara kana garii ambaasaddarummaadhaan gariis dippilomaatummaa bifa adda addaan loosee alatti baasee bilisummaan akka jiraatan murteesse. Warri biyya keessa jiran kan akka Abbaa Duulaa Gammadaas laphee isaanii dhiibanii Oromiyaa keessa deemu. Guyyaa tokkollee badii isaanii amananii ummata dhiifama hin gaafanne. Kun kan agarsiisu Bilxiginnaa jechuun muuxa OPDO tahuu isii ti. Akkuma beekamu bofti gaafa dulloome gogaa dullumaan qarcaccaahe ofirraa gatee muuxatee deebi’ee dardarooma. OPDO fi Bilxiginnaa jechuun bofa dullachaa fi muuxa isaa ti. Injifannoo dhiiga ummata kumootaan dhufe arraba damma dibattee micciirtee kan harkatti galfattes angafoota ishii gaafatama jalaa baraaruu fi qabsaayota dhugaa irratti daranuu garaa jabaattee haaloo itti bahachuuf masaraa jirti. Ummanni kana dagachuu hin qabu.


The Impact of Coronavirus to the Global Political Economy (IPE)
(Y. Beshir, Malmö University)

Introduction

The world is now forced to speak a single global language every day, since a couple of months ago. This single global language is the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and it is definitely a contemporary IR related issue. From north to south, from the poor to the rich, white to black, Muslim to Christian, literate to illiterate, top official to ordinary person etc, coronavirus is their every day and even every hour topic and concern. This viral catastrophe has emerged as the most powerful global phenomena of this era that challenging us all as human being. It reminds that we are in a real globalized era and no one can hide alone from any borderless threat against human being. It also reminds us that we humans of this era are still too weak to fight microscopic beasts despite our much-glorified technological advancement.

The coronavirus pandemic is not only killing many lives, but also damaging the world economy severely, which ultimately could result in political instabilities in many states. In this short paper, I will try to analyse how the coronavirus spread, who is to blame and how it can be a major reason to economic collapse and political instability or how it generally affects the global political economy (IPE). It is an independent take that reflects my own understanding of the threat of the coronavirus pandemic and its political economic consequences. I will make my discussion in line with the realist and liberal views, as I found these theories and concepts are most relevant to analyse this issue. The paper will be concluded by providing some policy advice as a way out.

The outbreak and spread of Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Since the fall of 2019, when the news about the outbreak of this new virus was heard from Wuhan, China, it has silently spread to almost the entire world. The Chinese government was trying its best to suppress the news about the outbreak, probably worrying that this news could damage its national image and may have negative consequences on its global commercial competence. However, the disease was unstoppable and the Wuhan region of China was badly beaten by Covid-19 by the end of 2019 which later forced the country to declare the outbreak of this new virus to the world. Initially, it was seen by some world politicians and economists as a problem that limited only in China and easy to contain. When China was neck in neck with the spread of the virus, the world was watching silently and even some are accusing China of breeding it.

Who is/are to blame?

Both China and the rest world particularly the U.S. are to blame. The failure of the Chinese government to declare the outbreak of the virus on time can be seen as a huge blunder that enormously affecting the entire world today. Had China disclosed this problem to the world in the early stage, the virus would have been contained within its birth country with a very limited resource before it spread to the whole world. Intentional silence and even silencing medical doctors who were warning the outbreak of the virus make China the most responsible for the horrible danger that the world has faced today. It is believed that the virus had already been transported in large amount to the USA, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Spain and other parts of the Western countries and silently spreading in those countries before China admitted the outbreak and WHO was also too late to declare a global health emergency.

Even after the declaration, the rest world, particularly those who have strong market ties that involve active travel to and from China should have considered the serious consequences of such recklessness. Western states, particularly the Trump administration did very little, undermining the fatality of the virus and they were less concerned about the virus that already imported and silently spreading through individuals who had a travel history to China. It was after thousands, if not millions of citizens were infected with the virus that the sirens began to sound all over the world.

Covid-19 and its impact on the Global Political Economy (IPE)

According to the latest report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) the coronavirus could reduce world trade by up to a third. Bloomberg also reported that the world economy may face 5 trillion hits due to coronavirus pandemic. A number of world-class economists are predicting a deep economic recession is inevitable due to the pandemic. As the virus is horrendously hitting particularly the developed world, which should spark a question of why the fast flow of the world economy is expected to be heavily affected. Consequently, major productions and commercial activities could be hampered, millions of employees could be left unpaid due to lockdowns and these negative developments may lead to financial and social crises, and these crises could be motives to political insecurity, which may include violent protests. Given the possible widespread public protests against the government, employers could be forced to pay their employees while they are not gaining any profit and this also may result in a more serious financial crisis that open major conflict between companies and the government – another motive that adds more fuel to exacerbate political unrest.

The virus is also spreading in the developing countries which is too difficult to contain it due the poor living condition and lack of sufficient medical services in those nations. Moreover, the rich countries who are traditionally known to assist the poor ones during such tough times are now badly beaten and on stiff resistance in the battle against the virus themselves, leave alone assisting the developing world. This may cause millions of deaths and total economic collapse and social crises in poor countries which includes terrible hunger. If these crises are left without solution due to the absence of international aids, they could be a potential reason for the outbreak of civil wars over-claiming or controlling the few resources left for self-survival. This could mark the end of the governments’ efficiency to maintain order and instead, anarchism may take over, which ultimately could even lead back to the primitive ‘survival of the fittest’, as the only working theory to stay alive. To sum it, the coronavirus pandemic crashes the economy and the economic crash could lead to disastrous and widespread political instability. This is how the pandemic could affect the IPE.

Economic nationalism or Mercantilism as the main theoretical factors of the spread of Covid-19

Economic nationalism or mercantilism are key concepts of the realist IPE theory. Economic nationalists or mercantilists believe inter-state system is anarchical and it is therefore the duty of each state to protect its interests (O’Brien and Williams, 2016). These concepts have created recklessness which has facilitated conditions to the spread of the pandemic. The two greatest mercantilist powers – Trump’s America and China, had been at Trade War when this phenomenon surfaced. The news about the outbreak of coronavirus was immediately given political interpretation both by the US and China. When Donald Trump called it ‘Chinese Virus’ it was highly related to the already ongoing Trade War between the two titans. China also accused the US, claiming that U.S. military personnel had brought the virus to China during their participation in the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan last October (VOA News, April 15, 2020).

Hurling words against one another, the two mercantilist powers have made confusion and secrecy about the outbreak and spread of the virus. They both seemed to stick to blaming or attack one another as a continuation of the Trade War between them than giving priority to contain the pandemic before it causes hundreds of thousands of deaths and collapse of the world economy. This can be seen as a contemporary example of the anarchic nature of economic nationalists and mercantilist states as well as the disastrous effect of their policy. They point fingers to win one another in an intention to defend their own national (economic) interest rather than working interdependently to stop the common enemy of humankind in the early stage to save the world. It is this zero-sum game the two great mercantilist powers are engaged on that encouraged the spread of the pandemic in an alarming scale. Common threats to the world, such as the outbreak of pandemics are time tests that can expose the ugliest nature of realism.

The decline of bold reaction from the liberal powers to defend the liberal values and policies

According to the liberal IPE theory, the international system is characterized by interdependence and cooperation or absolute gain than relative (O’Brien and Williams, 2016), which both the Trump administration and China lack. The Western liberal powers seem they have been in some sort of confusion and they have not made their voice heard louder than the squabbles of the two great mercantilist powers. The U.S. and the UK who have been traditionally known as defenders of liberal policies and values are now disordered with Trump’s ‘America First’ and UK’s Brexit nationalist policies. States are likely to cooperate through international organizations (IOs), which is one of the leading concepts of the liberal theory. IOs such as the World Health Organization (WHO) as a liberal institution initially did not play an influential and unbiased role that fits their responsibilities in the contemporary crisis. The WHO did not work enough at the early stage to investigate what was going on between the U.S. and China in relation to the outbreak and spread of the coronavirus.

This failure of the organization later resulted in the blame of biasedness to either side. A good example of this is Trump’s accusation of WHO as ‘China-centric’ in the battle against coronavirus, despite being funded much greater amount of money annually by the U.S. when compared to China. Thus, in tit-for-tat action, Trump suspended the U.S. funding to WHO, which is considered by many as a wrong move that affects the world efficiency to fight the pandemic. This exemplifies that liberal institutions (WHO in this case) are now not really in good hands to defend liberal values and policies. Liberal powers of the West (including the political societies in the United States and the UK) failed to act jointly and timely to stop the messes by the economic nationalist world leaders. Hence, they are facing the bitterest consequence of the pandemic as we can witness from the data of daily death reports which ultimately poses a huge threat to these world-leading economies.

Some sort of Policy Advice

The phenomena of coronavirus and its terrifying fatality in this era have been showing that our science and technology advancement is still not enough to protect human life and sustaining healthy IPE. Deriving some lesson from what is going on, the following actions should be considered:

A. The world is enjoying global ties through fast information and transportation communications. In this more globalized world, one cannot survive turning itself an island while others are sinking in an ocean of a certain crisis. The spread of coronavirus to the whole world within a very short period of time can prove this. Hence, to heal the IPE crisis that this phenomenon is making, only interdependence and cooperation among world nations are the way out. In other words, liberal values should be reinstated and well-defended in order to act in unison against any kind of threat to human life and the world economy.
B. Economic nationalists are selfish and greedy but ultimately endanger their own national interests they claim to defend and they affect the whole world, as we have been witnessing how Trump and China reacted to the outbreak of coronavirus since its early stage. Trump’s ‘America First’ has only put America on top of the world with the highest number of virus cases and deaths in the ongoing pandemic. Deriving some lessons from this catastrophe, the silent majority of world civil and political societies, particularly in the U.S. and China must react in unison against such zero-sum policies of these leaderships.
C. The dispute between Trump and China over WHO’s accountability is a bad signal. International organizations (IOs) such as WHO have the responsibility to act as early as possible unbiasedly to serve and save the world. As world liberal institutions, IOs are expected to adhere to the UN Charter and liberal values. They have to react regardless of any influence by powerful greedy states that want to dictate IPE for their own respective benefits.
D. After defeating the pandemic some kind of international commission should be established to investigate how and where exactly the coronavirus was created and who was the most responsible to cause its fast spread all over the world. The issue of this pandemic should be considered on par with care to weapons of mass distraction since they both can cause horrible danger to human beings and IPE when they fall into the wrong hands. Some important lessons should be derived from this failure which might help to prevent a possible similar catastrophe in the future that can be a potential threat to IPE.

References

Eberstadt, Nicholas and Blumenthal, Dan (April 2, 2020) ‘China’s deadly coronavirus-lie co-conspirator – The World Health Organization’, New York Post
https://nypost.com/…/chinas-deadly-coronavirus-lie-co-con…/… (last accessed April 15, 2020)
Goodman, David (April 09, 2020) ‘World Economy Faces $5 Trillion Hit That’s Like Losing Japan’, Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/…/world-economy-faces-5-trillion-… (last accessed April 15, 2020)
Huang, Joyce (March 13, 2020) ‘Chinese diplomat accuses U.S. of spreading coronavirus’, VOA
https://www.voanews.com/…/chinese-diplomat-accuses-us-sprea… (last accessed April 15, 2020)
O’Brien, Robert and Williams, Marc (2016), Global Political Economy, Palgrave, London pp: 9
O’Brien, Robert and Williams, Marc (2016), Global Political Economy, Palgrave, London pp: 13
World Economic Forum (April 09, 2020) ‘Coronavirus could reduce world trade by up to a third, according to the WTO’
https://www.weforum.org/…/wto-financial-crisis-coronavirus-… (last accessed, April 14, 2020)