Ethiopia’s small numbers of detected cases have only to do with the smaller numbers of cohort cases that they have been following up.

Ethiopia’s small numbers of detected cases have only to do with the smaller numbers of cohort cases that they have been following up.

Note that 442 is the largest number of test cases conducted per day in Ethiopia, and hence 9 became the largest number of confirmed cases per single day in the country so far. Meaning that obviously, the number of confirmed cases per each day would be proportional to the number of test cases per day.

#COVID-19 #FalseImpression #Prevalence #Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s small numbers of detected cases have only to do with the smaller numbers of cohort cases that they have been following up. The numbers got nothing to do with the actual prevalence of the disease pandemic in the general population. Meaning that detected cases are so small just because test-cases are so.

Problem here is that giving out daily reports of these smaller detected case numbers (which came out from smaller number of cohorts being followed up) gives a false impression that the prevalence of the disease in the general population is so low — thereby essentially anchoring our precautionary measures and other actions on such a wrongly promoted idea of a false negative.

So, as a solution, I think it might be a good idea for Ethiopia either to stop daily reporting, including on public media, the fewer numbers of daily detected cases thereby giving a wrong impression about the disease prevalence (cus this is absolutely dangerous) OR it start population wide screening and testing to determine the actual (reportable) prevalence of the viral pandemic within the population.

#Ethiopia

Girma Gutema