Ethiopia’s Rocky Transitional Election

Ethiopia’s Rocky Transitional Election

(Crisisgroup)—This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell talks to Crisis Group expert William Davison about how June elections may play out amid rising insecurity across Ethiopia, and what a victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s party could mean for the turbulent transition and broader region.

Ethiopia is set to hold delayed elections on 21 June, a milestone that – before the ongoing war in the Tigray region – many observers believed would be a litmus test for the transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Violent flare-ups in various parts of the country, a poll boycott by some opposition groups and postponed votes in several locations all cast a shadow over the landmark election. 

Joining Alan for a discussion on what to expect from the process under these circumstances is William Davison, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia. He unpacks the rising instability, including the growing insurgencies in the Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia regions. They discuss how political parties are vying for support amid a surge in ethno-nationalism and the fierce debate over the constitutional structure. They also flesh out different post-election scenarios for Ethiopia given the many outstanding questions about how to resolve the country’s deep rifts.

Tigray War: Update from North Western & Central Tigray