DW News – የኢትዮጵያ ዕለታዊ ዜና መጽሔት November 21, 2017
BBN ETHIOPIAN DAILY NEWS
NOVEMBER 20-2017 የዕለቱን ዜና እነሆ
በህዋሀት ውስጥ የተፈጠረው አለመረጋጋት ይበልጥ እየተጋጋለ ሄደ።
When it wraps up its long meeting, the TPLF leadership will make tactical moves meant to facilitate its strategic objectives. Its tactical moves aim to appease the public with cosmetic changes. Such deception, it hopes, will allow it to eliminate its adversaries without serious popular backlash.
The tactical moves will likely include
– Change of the Chairman and ‘purge’ of some unpopular figures ( Azeb, Abay Tsehaye etc) and bringing on lesser known figures to the forefront.
– Removal and /or arrest of some military generals implicated in Somali region fiasco.
– Removal of Abdi Illey and proposal to dismantle Liyu Police
– They will spread rumor about giving party chairmanship and PM position to so and so with ANDM and OPDO
These changes will be highly publicized but they wont be real. The purged will be retired with huge perks. Liyu Police will be either reorganized or absorbed in the army and deployed with same mission different uniform.
As I said earlier these tactical moves are are meant to build political capital that could be used to advance the strategic objective of regaining full monopoly by eliminating ‘internal threat.’ Pay attention how the leaked document repeatedly emphasizes the cause of the current crisis is internal sabotage. They hope the tactical changes will help them avoid backlash when they go after those ‘internal enemies’ within ANDM and OPDO (The Gedu’s, Abadulas and their younger cohorts). They will be arguing, ‘look we purged ‘rent seekers’ within our own organization, whats wrong we take out the bad apples in sisterly parties?’
Will it work? Unlikely because its way too late. In Oromia the public cannot be deceived even if you bing them Abay Tsehaye’s head on stick. They will have him and ask for more. In revolutionary period cosmetic reforms make the people hungrier. Also OPDO and ANDM appear to have grown smarter, faster and more unified than TPLF can see. They are very likely foil any attempt to purge their leadership.
Either as Bahr Dar soccer fans recently sang poking fun at TPLF “ወደድሽም ጠላሽም ዘንድሮ አይቀርልሽም”
Via: Jawar Mohammed