Appease Amhara to ambush Oromo and then TPLF will ultimately win!
By Falmataa Sabaa (PhD)
The so called split of TPLF leaders is nothing but principle based debate as to how to get off of the upheaval confronted them sooner than they might have thought. It would be strange to expect that the minority based TPLF would split under circumstances of existential threat on them no matter to which group one might belong. That TPLF members specifically and Tigray people in general are effectively working toward their independence is beyond show of doubt to all critical thinks. Consequently, it is crystal clear that TPLF will soon use Article 39 and declare Republic of Tigray. That is what we, in a nutshell, call legacy of late Melese Z.
Zenawi had already hinted the party and his people about signs of end times. The signs have to do with strength and scope of Oromo struggle against their hegemony. He underlined that end of the game will be when Oromo says freedom before bread. However, it seems this sign came into being without enough preparedness of TPLF to change their realm. The master minds of TPLF had been working to settle issues such defense for Republic of Tigray along with creating enabling environment. It may be wise to expect that the hearts of State of Tigray (underground) might be saturated with some state of the art defense technology including launching pad for nuclear reactors. Also the fact that they needed future guardian powerful country must have to first come to its final agreement. This is obvious from assignment of Seyoum M to China which isn’t only for contemporary Ethiopia but also as Ambassador of Republic of Tigray.
Apart from some debate due to blurred image on methods of implementation of the strategic goal, there is no ad hoc issue that splits TPLF on the basis of ideology. Moreover, TPLF as a center of key government authority and fully armed military, it isn’t at stage of immediate frustration by the public revolt from any corner of the country. It is no wonder that TPLF can hand pick anyone region’s president or cabinet member (s) any time they need to do so. In fact they removed Muktar K along with his surrogates and replaced Lemma M and his structure. The propaganda blown onto us saying TPLF fail to remove Gedu A is, as well, not holding water. Strength of Gedu A and his allies have been clearly tested on giving away of Wolkayit Tegede. TPLF needs no consent of Gedu A to do whatever it wants to do in Amhara region. Removing Gedu A and installing someone else is the same Chala.
The urgent need for TPLF is bit longer time, before Oromo wave inundate them, to put in place the entire plotted strategic plan. Therefore, TPLF reengineered in the camp of puppet organizations (OPDO and ANDM) for additional task on top of the initial purpose they were created for. Hence, TPLF let the cock fly with string tied on the shank. Then, the cock crows saying ku ku kuu (do you need unity)? So, here is what I called appeasing of Amhara and eventually trapping of Oromo. It would be so melody for the ANDM (and thereby Amhara) that it may start to reconsider further eligibility of TPLF as a master. ANDM (and thereby Amhara) might tend to say, TPLF can take even Gonder if it will help us keep Oromia and its coffee.
If the current formula would gain its desired purpose, TPLF will be very active to load to Tigray every goods available to them before Oromo (as led by OLF and Qeerroo) will mount to the stage of completely stopping them. Meanwhile, TPLF also executes its ongoing arrangements for declaration of their independence. Once TPLF notes it is having the final narrow corridor, it will turn around and say to OLF; why not we negotiate? At that point OPDO is no more important for TPLF than to throw it to garbage but weak ANDM will continue to exist to stabilize that region for TPLF. That will conclude legacy of late Zenawi in Oromia but its fruition in Republic of Tigray. The circuiting worry of civil war in Ethiopia following end of Zenawi’s legacy in Oromia has no ground to expect. TPLF knows it backfires itself more than anyone.
I am writing this piece of article while I am noting tremendous appreciation for Lemma M especially from habesha based media outlets and Diaspora based some Oromo social media activists. I wish the strength of Lemma M and unity that they speculated would take place. Nevertheless, the facts on the ground can’t prove that scenario. What new development is that make us to expect OPDO as hero apart from that it was created to function for TPLF’s mission in Oromia?
- The structural change and the sweat words of Lemma M? No, because Lemma can’t even protect displaced Oromo nor have ability to deploy his militia to defend Oromia’s border. He can’t even have hard tone to defend his nation as that of Abdi Illey.
- Are you telling me the Qeerroo Bilisumma Oromo’s perspective? This can’t work because Qeerroo have no root in or branch out of OPDO. The maximum we can say is that Oromia police tended to accompany Oromos during some demonstrations. Note that they couldn’t rescue killings of Oromos. The tendency we saw proves that such tactic is embedded in the design of TPLF to give coverage for the sweat words of Lemma M. No more!
- Is there any practical response by Lemma M to the quest of Qeerroo and Oromo nation? No. Remember that Lemma M have no right to take basic actions such as to release political prisoners, raise and settle the constitutional right of Oromia on Finfinnee and to propose Afaan Oromo as federal working language.
- Is there any muscle for Lemma M to rely upon? No. It is no wonder that a single TPLF solider or intelligence can jail him any time if need be.
- Is Lemma M important to merge the political gap between Oromo and Amhara? No! Saying Ethiopianism is addiction, my blood your blood and the like are far from touching the chronic political problem leave alone to solve it.
Therefore what is that most Habesha media outlets and some social media based Oromo activists are shouting about? Nothing new! They seem to appeased by the TPLF drama. Gobana was their hero but Oromo’s aborted son, Lemma M is their Nelson but similar to Abba Dula, Junedin Sado and Muktar Kedir, etc. for the Oromos. TPLF can design to appease Amhara and align them along, but Oromos would remain active fighting TPLF without falling to the trap. Unfortunately, therefore, there seem no tangible benefit out the current drama authored by TPLF and acted by OPDO and ANDM. The best to do for freedom lovers are to clear TPLF from own respective territory. Qeerroo Bilisummaa Oromo and the OLF as torch of Oromos toward freedom from colony never rest before achieving the desired goal. Meanwhile elites of stakeholder nations need to effectively address our problem to get us up to solution.