Abiy’s Administration in a Serious Trouble as Wars Intensify on All Fronts

Abiy’s Administration in a Serious Trouble as Wars Intensify on All Fronts

Addis Ababa, May 17, 2021 – (EthioHeadlines) – Information from within the Ethiopian government indicates that Abiy is caught between a rock and hard place which puts his chance of staying in power under serious question. The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have intensified their offensives and expanded territories under their control. While TDF is gaining increased control of a number of major towns such as Hawzen in Tigray, OLA is fast closing in on the capital, Addis Ababa. The international community is reevaluating its relations with Abiy’s administration in light of the ongoing civil war and security disasters.  

According to some reports, the Tigray Defense Force is getting reorganized. Fighting against Ethiopian and Eritrean troops has been reportedly intensified over the last few days. It has engaged Amhara militia, entering into the Amhara regional State as far as Gondar. Internal sources indicate that publicly unreleased government reports do collaborate with this report. 

In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), according to the government internal report, controls a large swath of areas in the West, South, South West, and Central Oromia. What is more worrying for the government is that young Oromo youth (Qeerroo) have exhausted their hope for peaceful resistance. Thus, thousands are turned their focus to armed struggle and joining the OLA in droves. Furthermore, hundreds of Oromia Special Force members and Oromo members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force are joining the OLA.  

Diplomatically, the international community is putting unprecedented pressure on the government. The US and the EU are demanding that Eritrean troops pull out of Ethiopia immediately; the government indefinitely postpones the election; releases all political prisoners and starts an all-inclusive national dialogue.

The Abiy government attempted to convince the international community that the elections slated for June address the current crises. However, no one is convinced for several reasons.  First, Abiy has detained all formidable opposition party leaders. Second, major political parties such as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) were forced from the elections. Third, there is a civil war underway in Tigray, Western Oromia, and Benishangul-Gumuz.  Fourth, even where elections were expected to take place, registration, and morale are low. Furthermore, even if the elections were to take place, the winning party is already known. Thus, the election will not bring peace and stability to the country.  

Abiy’s administration does not either grasp the gravity of the civil war in Tigray, Oromia, and Benishangul-Gumuz or does not care. In Oromia, the regional government in concert with the federal government and armed forces has started the extrajudicial public execution of citizens.  No Oromo Qeerroo (youth) is safe and spared from intimidation, arbitrary arrest, and extrajudicial killings at a whim of the military marshal rule. The peoples of Benishangul-Gumuz even do not have people who are documenting and exposing the daily killings.

Dissenting voices such as that of the Patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church who has unequivocally rebuked the genocidal war in Tigray have emerged. According to internal sources from Ethiopia, Mr. Jeffrey Feltman, US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, delivered a harsh reality check to Abiy’s administration.

The tone of the official response from the deputy PM and Foreign minister Demeke Makonnen perhaps confirms this reality. After the visit, the National Elections Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) postponed the election by two to three weeks, citing logistical issues. Many analysts believe that the postponement might be indefinite. The NEBE announcement might have been meant to provide the Ethiopian government a pad for a soft landing. 

It should be noted that past intimidations, harassments, arrests, extrajudicial killings, and wars of aggression did not produce the desired outcome of silencing people who demand freedom, equality, democracy, and justice. On the contrary, these measures just make it harder to reach an amicable solution. The only sure way to solve the current stalemate in Ethiopia is an all-inclusive dialogue. A negotiated political solution is the only antidote to well-entrenched political stances and stalemates. In the absence of an all-inclusive dialogue and negotiated political settlement, violence becomes the only viable choice.

1 Comment

  1. Ethiopian orthodox followers are not amhara party and mahibrekidusan sympathizers . Donot use EOTC as a shield. You destroyed the church and raped nuns and killed monks! Mahibrekidusan is supporting the patriarch now because they felt they cannot avert the danger ahead and survive . They were campagning against the patriarch for long . They insulted him saying” ቀሲስ አስተርአየ ተብየው በዘሀበሻ ላይ በለጠፈው ፅሑፍ ቅዱስ አባታችንን ጭንጋፍ ሲል ሰድቧቸዋል፥፥ይህን የለጠፉበት ቀን ከማህበረ ቅዱሳን ተብየውን ጋር አልተናበቡም ነበር መሰለኝ፥፥በኋላ ከረጅም ሰዓታት ፍጥጫ ና ግጭት ጭቅጭቅ ማህበሩ ሀሳቡን ቀይሮ ቅዱስ አባታችንን እንደግፋለን ፥ቤተክርስቲያን ስደት ላይ ናት በማለት ፥ቤተክርስቲያን (ምዕመናን)ከለላ እንዲሆኑዋው ታክቲካቸው በመቀየር በሌላ ማርሽ ለመጓዝ ስምምነት ላይ ደረሱ፥፥ ከዚህ ቀን በኋላም ዘሀበሻ ቅዱስ አባታችንን የሚዘልፍ ና በቀሲስ አስተርአየ የተፃፈ ፅሑፍን አንስቶታልአሁን ቢሆን በሕዝበ ክርስቲያኑና ቤተክርስቲያኗ ላይ የፈፀሙት በደልን የያሽርና የሚያጠፋ ድርጊት እንዳልሰሩ ግፋቸውን አንረሳም፥፥ባጭሩ ቅዱስ አባታችንበተለያዩ ክልሎች በምዕመናን ላይ የሚፈፀም ግፍንና ጭፍጨፋን ተቃወሙ እንጂ እንደ ሲኖዶሱና ማህበረ ቅዱሳን ተብየው ብልፅግናን ናጅምላ ጭፍጨፋውን ደግፈው እገዛ አላደረጉም፥፥ድጋፍ ይደረጉ የቤተክርስቲያኗ አባቶች በሙሉ እንደ ቤተክርስቲያኗ ሥርዓትና ፍትሐ ነገሥት ቃል ከሥልጣን መነሣት አለባቸው ያሣረዱትን ምዕመንና ወገኑን ጦርነቱ ያጣውን ምዕመን ሊመሩ ብቃት የላቸውም፥፥ቃሉም ይፈቅድላቸውም፥፥መንግሥት ወይም ሌላ ኢቤተክርስቲያን አካል በቤተክርስቲያን ጣልቃ አይገባም ፥የቤተክርስቲያን አባቶችን መምረጥና መሻር የሚችለው ወዘተ ለምትሉ በግ ወይም ሌላ እንሰሳ ይደለም የሞተው ካህናት ና ምዕመናን በጅምላ ታርደዋል ፥ቤተክርስቲያን ተዘርፏል ተቃጥሏል፥መነኮሳይያት ተደፍረዋል፥በመጠኑ አናሳ ቢሆም በሌሎች ክልሎችም አስቀድሞ ስለተፈፀመ አናውቅም ነበር አይሰራም፥፥ዳግመኛ በአፅንኦት የምንናገረው ይህ ግፍና ጭፍጨፋ ከዶግማና ቀኖና ጥሰቶች የበለጠ ና በጾምና በጸሎት በጥርምትና በርምሞ የሚታለፍ ባለመሆኑ በዋናነት ይህን ያስተባበሩና የመሩ የኢትዮጵያ ኦርቶዶክስ ተዋህዶ ቤተክርስቲያን ካህናትና አለቆች የሲኖዶስ አባላት ካሉ ማህበረ ቅዱሳን ብሎ ራሱን የሚጠራው ጨምሮ ለህግ መቅረብና በሕግና በሥርዓት መዳኘት አለባው፥፥ቤተክርስያን በመሳዊ ፍርድቤት ነው የምትደዳረው መንግሥትና ቤተክርስቲያን የተለያዩ ናቸው አንዳው ባንዳው ጣልቃ መግባት የለባቸውም ወዘተ በሚሉ ምክያቶች የሚታለፍ አይደለም፥፥የሕግ ትኩረት የሚያሻው ሕዝባችንንና በ ህልውናችን ላይ የረሰ ግፍናጭፍጨፋ በመሆኑ በቀላሉ ሚይ አይደለም፥፥የብዙሃን ንፁሓን ሕይወት ነው የጠፋው፥የማንኛውም ሰው ሕይወት ክቡር ነው ለሰው ሕይወት መጥፋት ምክንያት የሆነና ድጋፍ ያደረገ ሁሉ ምም እንኳ ምድራዊ ይሁን ሰማያዊ ተልዕኮ ቢያራምድም በሕግ ፊት መቅረብ አለበት ፥፥

    ውድቀታቸው ከሩቁ ፍንትው ብሎ የታያቸው አንዳንድ የአማራ ልሂቃን አድማ ሲቀሰቅሱባው የነበሩትን ፓትርያርኩን ቅዱሥነታቸውን እንደግፋለን፥ምዕመናን ሆይ ብልፅግና ቤተክርስቲያንህን ለመታደግ ባንድነት ተነሣ፥እያሉ ሃይማኖትን ለግል ጥቅማቸው ሲያውሉ ሕዝብ ለጦርነት ከለላ አድርገው ለመጠቀም ሲዘጋጁ እያየናቸው ነው፥፥
    ሕዝባችንን ሌት ተቀን እየጨፈጨፉ ያሉት ኤርትራውያኑም በተጋሩ ሚድያ መድረክ ተሰጥቷቸው፥እኛ ኤርትራውያን እንደምታዩን ከጎናቹህ ነን ፥በገንዘብ በሰላማዊ ሰልፍ እየረዳናቹህ ነው የጋራ ጠላታችን ሕግደፍ እና ከአማራ የተደቀሉ ደቃሉ ኤርትራውያን ናቸው በማለት ጠላቶቻችንን ከፍለውልን እኛን ለማደናገርና ታራክን ለማዛባት ሌት ተቀን በተጋሩ ሚድያ ይሰራሉ፥፥የሥጋ የዘር ነገር አይለቅም ይላሉ ሮኬት ሲተኮስ አቱም ግደፉ ውድቀታቸው ፥በትግራይ እየሸቀጠ የሚኖረውን ሕዝባቸውን ያለውን ሲያስቡ ደግሞ ከናንተ ጋር ነን፥፥ከእናንተ ጋር ነን በማለት ወገናቸው በነፃ እንዲለቀቅ፥ሀገራቸው ምንም አይነት ችግር እንዳይደርስባት አዛኝ ቅቤ አንጓች ሰላይ ሆነው ነው የሚንቀሳቀሱት፥፥ደለይቲ ፍትሒ ኾኑ ደለይቲ ሰልዲ(ፍትሒ=ሰልዲ፥፫ ሌተርስ)የዩቱብ ገንዘብ ሰብሳቢዎች ናቸው፥፥ያልተፈቀደ የበረኀ ቪዲዮና ምስል ፥የተደጋገመ ዜና ቃላት በመቀያየር ንግድ ላይ ተሰማርተው ይታያሉ፤፤ሁሉም ኤርትራዊ ከአማራም ይወለድ ከሌላ በገንዘብም ሆነ በቁስ አገሩን ድጋፍ እስካደረገ ድረስ ጠላታችን ነው፥፥እንዳውም ኤርትራዊ ነኝ እካለ ድረስ ጠላታችን ነው፥፥ fake identity which is given by Italians and use it to make themselves different from Tegaru. Many of them they cannot pronounce it quite the same way .

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